Muslim Population Share, Religious Demography, and Development Patterns in Muslim-Majority Countries: A Cross-Country Exploratory Study
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This study examines the relationship between Muslim population share and selected development indicators in Muslim-majority countries through a non-causal, exploratory cross-country approach. Using secondary data from 44 Muslim-majority countries between 2019 and 2024, the study investigates statistical associations between religious demography and three development-related indicators: per capita income, income inequality (Gini index), and the Human Development Index (HDI). Data were obtained from internationally recognized sources, including the Pew Research Center, the World Bank, and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), ensuring comparability and reliability across countries. Pearson correlation analysis was employed to identify the direction and strength of associations between variables. The findings reveal moderate negative associations between Muslim population share and both per capita income and HDI, whereas the relationship with income inequality appears weak and statistically insignificant. However, the results do not support causal interpretations, as considerable heterogeneity exists across countries with similar religious demographic compositions. The study argues that development outcomes in Muslim-majority countries are more plausibly influenced by institutional quality, governance effectiveness, and structural conditions than by religious demography alone. Conceptually, this research contributes by distinguishing religious demography from individual religiosity and offers a more cautious macro-level perspective on religion–development linkages.
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