The US-China Trade War in Macroeconomic Studies of the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index

Muhammad Adi Adrian -  Postgraduates Program, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia
Mohammad Rofiuddin* -  Faculty of Islamic Economics and Business, Universitas Islam Negeri (UIN) Salatiga, Indonesia
DOI : 10.22515/shirkah.v8i3.538

A number of studies have been the witness of pros and cons about whether the US-China trade war affected the world’s macroeconomics. This study aims to analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) during the trade war period between the United States and China. The research’s assumption is delved from the occurrence of a trade war between two countries with the largest economic valuations in the world can disrupt the world economy including investment. The urgency of this research is to measure the impact of the trade war on the Indonesian sharia stock index which is one of the factors of economic growth. The analytical method used in this study is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to examine the long-term and short-term impacts. The results of this study indicate that in the short term the BI Rate, FED Rate, USD Exchange Rate, CNY Exchange Rate, World Gold Price, World Oil Price, Exports, and Imports have no effect on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI). The long-term results show that the BI Rate, CNY Rate, World Gold Price, World Oil Price, and Imports have a negative effect on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI), while the FED Rate, USD Rate, and Exports have a positive effect on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI). Based on these results the government is expected to tighten fiscal and monetary policies so that in the future if something similar happens, the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) remains on the right track.

Keywords : VECM; Macroeconomis; ISSI; Trade War;

  1. Abbass, K., Sharif, A., Song, H., Ali, M. T., Khan, F., & Amin, N. (2022). Do geopolitical oil price risk, global macroeconomic fundamentals relate Islamic and conventional stock market? Empirical evidence from QARDL approach. Resources Policy, 77(102730). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102730
  2. Adiningtyas, D. T. (2018). Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Syariah (Studi Kasus Di Indonesia Dan Malaysia). ISLAMICONOMIC: Jurnal Ekonomi Islam, 9(2), 151–172. https://doi.org/10.32678/ijei.v9i2.91
  3. Afendi, A. (2017). Pengaruh Variabel Makro Ekonomi Terhadap Indeks Saham di Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) (Periode 2012-2016). SEGMEN Jurnal Manajemen Dan Bisnis, 13(2), 48–72. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.37729/sjmb.v13i2
  4. Alamsyahbana, M. I. (2021). Pengaruh Sbi, Kurs, Dan Inflasi Terhadap Saham Indeks Lq45 Dengan Trade War Sebagai Variabel Moderating. Cash, 4(01), 42–54. https://doi.org/10.52624/cash.v4i01.1776
  5. Andani, M., & Latief, A. (2020). Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Rupiah dan BI Rate Terhadap Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia ( ISSI ). Borneo Student Research, 1(3), 2106–2117. https://journals.umkt.ac.id/index.php/bsr/article/view/836
  6. Angesti, N. M., & Setyadharma, A. (2022). The Effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic and Macroeconomic Variables on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Management Analysis Journal, 11(2), 124–133. http://maj.unnes.ac.id
  7. Ani, A. F., & Andrian, T. (2022). Pengaruh Indeks Saham Asing Dan Variabel Makroekonomi Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham LQ45. Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 4(2), 69-76. https://doi.org/10.24036/jkep.v4i2.13534
  8. Antonio, M. S., Hafidhoh, H., & Fauzi, H. (2013). The Islamic Capital Market Volatility: A Comparative Study Between in Indonesia and Malaysia. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Dan Perbankan, 15(4), 391–415. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v15i4.73
  9. Ardiansyah, J. (2015). Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Euro Dan Yuan Terhadap Indeks JII, Indeks PEFINDO 25 Dan Indeks IDX 30 Di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Studi Manajemen Dan Bisnis, Vol 2(2), Page 176-187. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.21107/jsmb.v2i2
  10. Balagobei, S., & Bandara, D. R. N. K. K. (2022). Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Performance: Evidence from Sri Lanka. Wayamba Journal of Management, 13(1), 28–45. https://doi.org/10.4038/wjm.v13i1.7551
  11. Bhama, V. (2022). Macroeconomic variables, COVID-19 and the Indian stock market performance. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 19(3), 28–37. https://doi.org/10.21511/imfi.19(3).2022.03
  12. Budhidharma, V., Sembel, R., Ugut, G. S. S., & Hulu, E. (2022). The Effect of Foreign Country Indexes, Macroeconomics, and Commodities on The Indonesian Stock Exchange. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Bisnis Dan Inovasi Universitas Sam Ratulangi, 9(2), 945–958. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.35794/jmbi.v9i2.42302
  13. Bursa Efek Indonesia. (2018). Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI). https://www.idx.co.id/idx-syariah/indeks-saham-syariah/
  14. Candy, & Winardy, A. (2019). Pengaruh Faktor Ekonomi Makro Terhadap Stock Return Pada Indeks Saham LQ45. Jesya Jurnal Ekobomi Dan Ekonomi Syariah, 2(1), 65–79. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.36778/jesya.v2i1.35
  15. Carvalho, M., Azevedo, A., & Massuquetti, A. (2019). Emerging countries and the effects of the trade war between US and China. Economies, 7(2), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7020045
  16. Chen, Y., Fang, J., & Liu, D. (2023). The effects of Trump’s trade war on U.S. financial markets. Journal of International Money and Finance, 134(102842), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102842
  17. Darmawan, S., & Saiful Haq, M. S. (2022). Analisis pengaruh makroekonomi, indeks saham global, harga emas dunia dan harga minyak dunia terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Jurnal Riset Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 15(2), 95-107. https://doi.org/10.26623/jreb.v15i2.4381
  18. Garnia, E., Rizal, D., Tahmat, T., & Ayu Febianti Lebeharia, A. (2022). Impacts of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Returns in the Property Sector. KnE Social Sciences, 2022, 59–68. https://doi.org/10.18502/kss.v7i6.10609
  19. Gumilang, R. C., Hidayat, R. R., & Endang, M. G. W. (2014). Pengaruh Variabel Makro Ekonomi, Harga Emas Dan Harga Minyak Dunia Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (Studi Pada Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2009-2013). Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis (JAB), 14(2), 84378. http://administrasibisnis.studentjournal.ub.ac.id/index.php/jab/article/view/586
  20. Gunawan, D., & Arfah, Y. (2019). Dampak Perang Dagang Amerika-Tiongkok Terhadap Integrasi Pasar Modal Global. Proseding Seminar Nasional Kewirausahaan, 1(1), 76–85. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.30596/snk.v1i1.3584
  21. Halisa, N. N., & Annisa, S. (2022). Macroeconomics Effect on Conventional and Sharia Stocks During the Covid-19 Pandemic. International Journal of Islamic Business Ethics, 7(1), 69–84. https://doi.org/10.30659/ijibe.7.1.69-84
  22. Hussain, M. M., Aamir, M., Rasool, N., Fayyaz, M., & Mumtaz, M. (2012). The impact of macroeconomic variables on stock prices: An empirical analysis of Karachi stock exchange. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 3(3), 295–312. https://doi.org/10.5901/mjss.2012.v3n3p295
  23. Ilyas, S. R. (2022). Pengaruh Indikator Makroekonomi Terhadap Harga Saham Perusahaan (Studi pada Perusahaan yang Tercatat dalam Indeks LQ45). Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen Sistem Informasi, 4(1), 93–105. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31933/jemsi.v4i1
  24. Kasongwa, L., & Minja, E. (2022). Moderating Effects of Oil Price on the Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Performance. Business Management Review, 25(1), 75–89. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.56279/bmrj.v25i1.5
  25. Kendall, M. G., & Hill, A. B. (1953). The analysis of economic time-series-part i: Prices. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General), 116(1), 11–34. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2307/2980947
  26. Kharis, A., & Mawardi, I. (2019). Analisis Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi Terhadap Return Saham Syariah Sektor Pertanian yang Terdaftar di ISSI Periode 2011-2018. Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Teori Dan Terapan, 6(1), 91–96. https://doi.org/10.31294/moneter.v6i1.5407
  27. Maran, K., Aancy, M., Venkatesh, P., & Senthilnathan, C. R. (2022). An Empirical Study on the Impact of Macro-Economic Variables on Asian Stock Markets Returns. Iranian Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, 6(1), 15–24. https://doi.org/10.22067/ijaaf.2022.41456
  28. Mawarni, C. P., & Widiasmara, A. (2018). Pengaruh FED Rate, Harga Minyak Dunia, BI Rate, Inflasi Dan Kurs Rupiah Terhadap Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI) Periode Tahun 2011-2017. Pengaruh FED Rate, Harga Minyak Dunia, BI Rate, Inflasi Dan Kurs Rupiah Terhadap Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI) Periode Tahun 2011-2017, 2(2), 281–297. https://doi.org/http://doi.org/10.25273/inventory.v2i2.3288
  29. Mishkin, F. (2008). Ekonomi Uang, Perbankan, dan Pasar Keuangan. Salemba Empat.
  30. Miyanti, G. A. D. A., & Wiagustini, L. P. (2018). Pengaruh Suku Bunga The FED, Harga Minyak dan Inflasi Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan ( IHSG ) di Bursa Efek Indonesia. E-Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Universitas Udayana, 7(5), 1261–1288. https://doi.org/10.24843/EEB.2018.v07.i05.p02
  31. Ningsih, Y. I., & Muthmainnah, M. (2019). Pengaruh Inflasi, Kurs, Suku Bunga, dan Harga Minyak Dunia Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Industri Pertambangan di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2012-2015. Ekonomis: Journal of Economics and Business, 3(1), 18–26. https://doi.org/10.33087/ekonomis.v3i1.52
  32. Nopirin. (2000). Ekonomi Moneter: Buku I Edisi Keempat. Yogyakarta: BPFE.
  33. Nur, S., & Fatwa, N. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh Indikator Makroekonomi Terhadap Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia. Jurnal Tabarru’ : Islamic Banking and Finance, 5(1). https://doi.org/10.25299/jtb.2022.vol5(1).9045
  34. Othman, A. T., & Al-Kassab, M. M. (2022). the Effect of Some Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Movement in Iraq. Advances and Applications in Statistics, 73, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.17654/0972361722008
  35. Panda, B., Panda, A. K., & Panda, P. (2023). Macroeconomic Response to BRICS Countries Stock Markets Using Panel VAR. Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, 30(1), 259–272. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10690-023-09399-7
  36. Pangestu, M. (2019). China–US trade War: an Indonesian perspective. China Economic Journal, 12(2), 208–230. https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2019.1611084
  37. Permada, D. N. R., Rachmawaty, R., & Amalia, A. (2022). Determinan Indeks Saham Berdasarkan Faktor Makro Ekonomi. Jurnal Ekobis : Ekonomi Bisnis & Manajemen, 12(1), 67–77. https://doi.org/10.37932/j.e.v12i1.447
  38. Pratiwi, A. C., Rusgianto, S., & Wardhana, A. K. (2022). Application of Vector Error Correction Model on Macroeconomic Variables toward Changes in the Composite Stock Price Index. Daengku: Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Innovation, 2(2), 219–229. https://doi.org/10.35877/454ri.daengku883
  39. Putri, P., & Rizal, N. A. (2019). Pengaruh Inflasi, Nilai Tukar, Harga Emas, dan Harga Minyak Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Jakarta Islamic Index Periode 2012-2016. Jurnal ISEI, I(1), 22–31. https://doi.org/10.36217/iar.v3i1.89
  40. Rahmawati, F., & Baini, N. (2019). Dampak Variabel Makro Ekonomi Domestik dan Global Terhadap Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI) Periode Mei 2011--Mei 2019. Li Falah Jurnal Studi Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Islam, 4(1), 190–211. http://dx.doi.org/10.31332/lifalah.v4i2.1473
  41. Sari, D. N., & Purwohandoko. (2019). Dampak Pengaruh Bursa Saham Global, Harga Emas Dunia, Dan Variabel Makroekonomi Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Periode 2009-2018. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen, 7(3), 772–783. https://ejournal.unesa.ac.id/index.php/jim/article/view/29111
  42. Sitorus, D. S. (2021). The United States and China Trade War: How Will It Impact the Indonesian Economy in 2017-2020. Undiksha Economy Education Journal, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.23887/jjpe.v13i1.34192
  43. Sukirno, S. (2003). Pengantar Teori Makro Ekonomi. Jakarta: Rajagrafindo Persada.
  44. Syahrir. (1995). Tinjauan Pasar Modal. Jakarta: Penerbit PT.Gramedia Pustaka.
  45. Teimouri, K. J. G., & Raeissadat, S. M. T. (2019). Impact of the United States and China Trade War on Growth in Asean Countries. International Journal of Research -GRANTHAALAYAH, 7(3), 64–78. https://doi.org/10.29121/granthaalayah.v7.i3.2019.944
  46. Wahyudi, H., & Rahayu, K. (2022). Determinan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Jangka Pendek dan Panjang. Studi Akuntansi, Keuangan, Dan Manajemen, 2(1), 15–28. https://doi.org/10.35912/sakman.v2i1.1422
  47. Winny, L., & Yulfiswandi, Y. (2022). Macroeconomics and the LQ45 Index: Is the COVID-19 pandemic making a difference? Jurnal Manajemen Strategi Dan Aplikasi Bisnis, 5(2), 217–230. https://doi.org/10.36407/jmsab.v5i2.612
  48. Yudianto, I., Muharam, H., & Sugiono, S. (2018). The Effect of Inflation, Usd and Yuan Exchange Rate, Crude Oil Wti and Icp To Indices Sectoral Returns in Indonesian Stock Exchange. Jurnal Bisnis Strategi, 27(1), 63–78. https://doi.org/10.14710/jbs.27.1.63-78
  49. Yusfiarto, R., & Pambekti, G. T. (2020). Analisis Pengaruh Variabel Makro terhadap Return Indeks Saham Syariah di Indonesia: Studi pada Fenomena Perang Dagang Global. Al-Mal: Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Keuangan Islam Volume, 01(01), 71–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.24042/al-mal.v1i1.5323
  50. Zhu, B. (2012). The Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Return of Energy Sector in Shanghai Stock Market. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 2(11), 2250–3153. https://www.ijsrp.org/research-paper-1112.php?rp=P11365

Shirkah: Journal of Economics and Business
Published by Faculty of Islamic Economics and Business (FEBI)
Institut Agama Islam Negeri Surakarta, Indonesia
Jln. Pandawa No. 1, Pucangan, Kartasura, Central Java, Indonesia, 57168
Phone: +62271-781516
Website: http://shirkah.or.id/new-ojs/index.php/home
Email: shirkahiainsurakarta@gmail.com

P-ISSN :2503-4235 | E-ISSN : 2503-4243

This ejournal system and it's contents licensed under
a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License